Archive for July, 2007

Iseq falls and somehow the property crash denial continues

On the news today it stated that “the Irish stock market taking a serious blow (by loosing 8.6 Billion Euro) was distracting conversations from the usual debates about the property market”.

Surely these two occurances are completely correlated! The banks took the brunt of the hit and this, as well as being linked to the american banking issues, its because they are so at risk to the property market. People still think that property will level off! Which frankly isn’t possible, who would invest in property that has no probability of gains or cashflow. IMO Its more likely to be a swift and devastating crash (20-40%) and a slow recovery.

It got me thinking why is this property market crash anticipated to take so long? The reason the Stock market droped so quick is cause it’s being dealt with by professionals who make logical decisions based on fact, figures and no emotions. On the other hand, the investment sector of the irish property market is less detached to the investment vehicle. Would you hold on to shares if you were certain that the price would go down over the next two years?? What if your dividends were due to go down too cause the rental market will be following the property market? You’d sell right??

Here’s the facts – Our population is aging, some of the immigrant workers that were here to facilitate to construction boom are no longer needed. They’ll move to England to facilitate the building requirements for the olympics there or somewhere where they’re skills are required! The prices of property are exceptionally over stated – first time buyers can’t afford property on a standard wage. The people that own a major share of small property investments are paye employee’s with one or two properties as a passive investment. These investors bought in under advice of others and based on past market preformance – something a sophisticated investor would never do.

Revenue move Vat fillings to every 4 months

Was happy yesterday to recieve a letter saying that i now only have to file Vat returns every 4 months in opposed to every 2. I think this is a great step forward from the Irish Gov. The Bureaucracy of business compliance is a major problem for small and start up businesses. Paying Vat both personal and corportate, can be very time consuming from filing little reciepts and trying to collect expenses reciepts (from employees) then setting aside otherwise productive time to keep everything in order is a pain. While i think having to do so is not a bad thing at all, business needs to be kept in order. The time constraints and frequency was problematic. Big pat on the back for the guys in revenue on this matter.

Spam is really getting annoying

As many people have been mentioning Spam in the last while has been on the massive increase and its really getting annoying. Today i had 33 blog post spams, 147 spam emails (in my inbox) and 6 trojan viruses in emails. Surely outlook can do better? Does spamming really work for these people? Surely if they focused their efforts else where they could be more productive.

Splitter – ‘All Alone’

One of the big hitters in the Electro house field Spiller – All alone got the go ahead on eye industries records and is now under Ministry of Sound. Its only a warm up track for the gigs i play but a nice one to listen to out in the sunshine or on a beach, great summer vibe to it and very well produced!

Marks out of 10: 7.5

The Freaks : The Creeps (Get On The Dancefloor) Vocal Remake

So the Freaks track gets a brand new shinny vocal redo which is awesome. Its designed for the commercial dance floors and has such a catchy vocal to it, its bound to do well. The orignal has been doing wonders on the dance floor and this redo makes it far more commercially appealing.

Marks out of 10: 9!

Insurance in Ireland still a Joke

Irelands insurance policy’s are a complete joke, there seems to be absolutely no logic behind the numbers they pull out of the air and slap on your premiums. I heard a catchy ad on the radio and decided to give a try for my car insurance, based on their ad that they were so sure if they don’t beat your current premium they’ll change their price to beat the competition and give you an extra cash saving. So i logged on, lost five minutes of my life inputting all my personal information and guess what their quote was 1000 Euro more expensive than my current renewal price!!! Clearly they wont get my business even with their fancy promises to beat the current price, i just get an impression they are over promising and under delivering. Recklessly wasting potential customers time. I’d never even consider them for a quote again now. Clearly they must serve some niche (or be some way competitive in their own right?) but by advertising to the mass market they completely alienate they rest of the market and create an awful comsumer image.

Vodafone Texting Down

Vodafone texting is down tonight, spent the last hour or so trying to send texts to people to no avail. Rang the customer care team, waited for the usual not so prompt service and was told that yes it was down, no they don’t know why and they hope it will be up again soon.

I’m surprised in the stage of development that everything hasn’t back up services so that something like this simply doesnt happen anymore?

A taste of Fierce Angel Vs Hed Kandi

3385526m.jpg VS 3385326m.jpg

Fierce Angels Vs Hed Kandi seem to be going head to head again with their sample series hitting their shops at the same time. This is where the label puts together a sample of their music on a single CD and sellings it for Eur 6/8 respectively.

Both samples are extremely good buys for anyone that hasn’t got the plunge to buy the albums and they contain some of my biggest/favourite tracks of this year so far. Click on the above links if you wanna head the types of music i’m talking about as both sites broadcast and if you like it i’d suggest picking up both sample cd’s!

Defected records come out trumps

I have to take my hat off to Defected records. These guys in a sweet inspirational burst of logic gave their customers exactly what they want! Curing two of my pet hates in one album.

1. Defected released a “DJ Format” CD which is the full unmixed 12″ mixes of the tracks on their latest Mix CD compliation. Most Djs like myself simply don’t buy certain compliations because they are pre-mixed and we need the full versions of the tracks we play. Would i have bought the album if it was mixed? Certainly not, infact i’ve passed the mixed version in the shops a few times before and not even lifted it.

2. Defected supplied “cd wallet” inserts with their album! Sounds simple but this little move is a huge favour who has to scan in the back of the album cover and print it out (or try find a fitted tracklisting online) every time they want to add an album to their collection.

These two simple steps moved defected as a label that i sometimes buy into a definate buy. I’m hoping some other companies will copy these two practices.

Are you a Property Paddy Last?

I was going over some old property “Daft Reports” today and something in David McWilliams Quarter 2 2005 post hit me:

“If you are buying today to generate an income from renting residential property, you have missed the boat. However, as the banks are lending hand over fist to the market, you can still make a few quid by avoiding being Paddy Last. That’s the rule. As Paddies continue to buy property as if it is going out of fashion, everyone’s exit strategy in this inflated market is to make sure there is another Paddy investor behind you to whom you can flog. So make sure you are not that guy – make sure you are not Paddy Last. Always keep the exit doors open”

Could this be the reason why some people are still swearing blindly that Ireland is invunerable to the looming property crash??? Is it as simple as they are still too heavily invested in it and therefore can’t admit that things have changed?

Fundamentals and Confidence are what drives a market. The fundamentals of investing for cashflow went years ago and the confidence is currently falling all around us. In Ken McElroy’s book the “ABC’s of real estate investing” (Kiyosaki’s Rich dad series) he suggested that the monthly rental should be 1% of the total purchase price on a reasonable investment deal. With Ireland running at three times that and a potentially shakey rental market in an economic down turn. So are you a Property Paddy Last???